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Study finds little evidence of economy's direct effect on crime

Louisville's 2% decrease supports conclusion

By Harold J. Adams
Louisville (Ky.) Courier-Journal
December 26, 2008

Conventional wisdom has it that a bad economy leads to more crime, as the pressure of high prices and rising unemployment prompt some to steal just to make ends meet.

But a recently released study of crime and business cycles in 23 cities from Boston to San Diego found very little relationship between hard times and high crime, at least in the short run.

In fact, overall crime is down 2 percent this year in Louisville, one of the cities covered in the study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The study also examined Louisville's fellow Federal Reserve Eighth District cities of St. Louis, Little Rock, Ark., and Memphis, Tenn.

While there is some variation from city to city, the study authors found "weak evidence across U.S. cities that economic conditions significantly influence short-run changes in crime."

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I'm always amazed at how some people expect immediate readings from this stuff. For example, there are those that now claim all the changes from last session saved the criminal justice system. Most of us know that the system is not capable of reacting that quickly to the addition of some treatment beds and variations in the sentencing laws. More likely, changes that were made 10 years ago are finally causing something to happen.